My Super Bowl XL Predictions

Alright it's time for me to make my prediction for Super Bowl XL. First, let's breakdown the offense-defense matchups in the game.

Pittsburgh's Offense vs. Seattle's Defense:
Pittsburgh's offense is currently scoring an average of 8.5 more points than the opposing defense normally allows (4th in NFL), while Seattle allows 5.2 points per game fewer than the opposing offense scores on average (1st in NFL). So, as expected in the Super Bowl, both these units are excellent. Pittsburgh's offense excels at running the ball and protecting against turnovers. They give up 0.55 fewer picks and 0.24 fewer fumbles per game than the opposing defense normally gets while rushing for an extra 38 yards. They are also very good in the red zone, averaging 33% more efficient in the red zone than the opposing defense normally allows. Seattle's defense holds team to 31 fewer rushing yards yards and 0.53 yards per carry fewer than they are used to. Their defense also usually picks up an extra 0.28 fumbles and 0.25 sacks per game. The Steelers struggle a little when they are held to under 3.5 yards per carry (although they won all their playoff games with low averages per carry). The Steelers win by an average of 28 to 11 when they have an average over 3.5 yards per carry and they lose by an average of 23 to 21 when they do not. The Steelers offense seems to be very balanced, as they run the ball very well and have not been afraid to come out throwing aggressively in the playoffs thus far. It will be very difficult for Seattle to stop Pittsburgh's defense, even though they have one of the best rushing defenses in the league as well as the most sacks in the league.

Seattle's Offense vs. Pittsburgh's Defense:
The Seahawks offense averages 9.2 more points per game than opposing defense allows on average (3rd in NFL) while the Steelers defense holds opponents to 7.4 fewer points per game than the opposing team normally scores (6th in NFL). Seattle's offense is very effective in all phases of the game, rushing for an additional 31 yards per game and passing for an extra 15 yards over what the opposing defenses usually give up. Seattle also gives up 0.61 fewer interceptions, 0.27 fewer fumbles, and 1.0 fewer sacks per game than the defense averages. Pittsburgh's defense, meanwhile, allows 30.7 fewer rush yards per game and 10.7 pass yards per game than the opposing offenses average. Pittsburgh also picks up an extra 1.3 sacks per game as well. Pittsburgh's defense does not appear to be anything special in terms of rushing average allowed or 3rd down conversion rate, however. The Seahawks offense, is very balanced with the league MVP Shaun Alexander rushing the ball and Matt Hasselback is able to throw it when they need it.

This is a very tough game to call. Both offenses are very good and very balanced. Both defenses are extremely effective at stopping the run and blitzing the quarterback. Both teams have been playing great through the postseason thus far and both were dominant in their wins in the conference championship games. Seattle's defense was incredible in the NFC championship game with Carolina last week, allowing something like 40 offensive yards in the first half. If Seattle can perform like that tomorrow, then they should win the game. I think it will be an exciting low-scoring, defensive game, where every point is crucial and any big play could decide the game. I'm predicting that Seattle wins 17-14 with King Philip's own Lofa Tatupu as Super Bowl MVP.