Patriot's Rantings

My blog has moved!!!!

2006-02-27T20:28:00.000-08:00

I have moved my blog to my website: www.toddhester.net.

It is now located at: http://www.toddhester.net/patsblog/

See you there!

My Super Bowl XL Predictions

2006-02-04T12:23:00.000-08:00

Alright it's time for me to make my prediction for Super Bowl XL. First, let's breakdown the offense-defense matchups in the game.

Pittsburgh's Offense vs. Seattle's Defense:
Pittsburgh's offense is currently scoring an average of 8.5 more points than the opposing defense normally allows (4th in NFL), while Seattle allows 5.2 points per game fewer than the opposing offense scores on average (1st in NFL). So, as expected in the Super Bowl, both these units are excellent. Pittsburgh's offense excels at running the ball and protecting against turnovers. They give up 0.55 fewer picks and 0.24 fewer fumbles per game than the opposing defense normally gets while rushing for an extra 38 yards. They are also very good in the red zone, averaging 33% more efficient in the red zone than the opposing defense normally allows. Seattle's defense holds team to 31 fewer rushing yards yards and 0.53 yards per carry fewer than they are used to. Their defense also usually picks up an extra 0.28 fumbles and 0.25 sacks per game. The Steelers struggle a little when they are held to under 3.5 yards per carry (although they won all their playoff games with low averages per carry). The Steelers win by an average of 28 to 11 when they have an average over 3.5 yards per carry and they lose by an average of 23 to 21 when they do not. The Steelers offense seems to be very balanced, as they run the ball very well and have not been afraid to come out throwing aggressively in the playoffs thus far. It will be very difficult for Seattle to stop Pittsburgh's defense, even though they have one of the best rushing defenses in the league as well as the most sacks in the league.

Seattle's Offense vs. Pittsburgh's Defense:
The Seahawks offense averages 9.2 more points per game than opposing defense allows on average (3rd in NFL) while the Steelers defense holds opponents to 7.4 fewer points per game than the opposing team normally scores (6th in NFL). Seattle's offense is very effective in all phases of the game, rushing for an additional 31 yards per game and passing for an extra 15 yards over what the opposing defenses usually give up. Seattle also gives up 0.61 fewer interceptions, 0.27 fewer fumbles, and 1.0 fewer sacks per game than the defense averages. Pittsburgh's defense, meanwhile, allows 30.7 fewer rush yards per game and 10.7 pass yards per game than the opposing offenses average. Pittsburgh also picks up an extra 1.3 sacks per game as well. Pittsburgh's defense does not appear to be anything special in terms of rushing average allowed or 3rd down conversion rate, however. The Seahawks offense, is very balanced with the league MVP Shaun Alexander rushing the ball and Matt Hasselback is able to throw it when they need it.

This is a very tough game to call. Both offenses are very good and very balanced. Both defenses are extremely effective at stopping the run and blitzing the quarterback. Both teams have been playing great through the postseason thus far and both were dominant in their wins in the conference championship games. Seattle's defense was incredible in the NFC championship game with Carolina last week, allowing something like 40 offensive yards in the first half. If Seattle can perform like that tomorrow, then they should win the game. I think it will be an exciting low-scoring, defensive game, where every point is crucial and any big play could decide the game. I'm predicting that Seattle wins 17-14 with King Philip's own Lofa Tatupu as Super Bowl MVP.

Computer Predictions for Super Bowl XL

2006-02-04T12:21:00.000-08:00

Super Bowl Predictions
Steelers 23 - Seahawks 17

Last Week:
Picked winning team: 2-0, 1
Against the spread: 2-0, 1
Picking over/under: 2-0, 1

My Predictions

2006-01-22T12:02:00.000-08:00

I predict that both the road teams will win this weekend. Steve Smith is unstoppable and I think Carolina's defense should be able to hold Seattle's offense.
The Steelers should be able to stop Denver's offense like the Patriots did, so as long as they can avoid turning the ball over 5 times, I think they'll win.

Computer Predictions for Conference Championships

2006-01-22T11:59:00.000-08:00

Conference Championships
Steelers 24 - Broncos 20
Seahawks 27 - Panthers 21

Super Bowl
Steelers 21 - Seahawks 20

Peter King blurb

2006-01-16T21:06:00.000-08:00

I think I talked to one league official, two head coaches, a quarterback, and a GM as the day progressed on Sunday, and there was one common theme: The officials are making too many mistakes for this time of year. The one that NO ONE could believe was the Asante Samuel interference on Ashley Lelie. As the GM said: "Don't tell me that didn't have a big part in the outcome of the game because the game ended up not being close. It was huge.'' I say: Allow replay for pass interference. I know it opens up a can of worms, but it's just too big a problem six or eight times a year, and it's a problem that can be corrected.

Peyton Manning

2006-01-16T08:11:00.000-08:00

I honestly don't think Peyton Manning will ever win a Super Bowl. He obviously doesn't perform well under pressure (not to mention Vanderjagt), but he doesn't take responsibility for his own poor play. After starting out 2 for 9 in the game with Steelers, Manning basically said it was the offensive line's fault and not his (of course Manning points out the protection for the O-line before each snap):

"We had some, uh . . . I know in playoff games y'all are going to ask me questions about other areas and other positions," Manning said. "I'm trying to be a good teammate here. Let's just say we had some protection problems.

"I'll give Pittsburgh credit for their blitzes and their rush, but we did have some protection problems."
"It's certainly not from a lack of effort on my part," he said. "I can honestly say that. I never walked off the field saying I could have done more to prepare for this game."

They say when the going gets tough, the tough get going. Well for Manning, the going gets tough, and he starts pointing fingers. Refs, weather, offensive line, anything but himself.

Fumbling It Away

2006-01-14T22:22:00.000-08:00

Here are my thoughts during the Patriots loss yesterday:

On their second drive, the Patriots went for it on 4th and 1 from Denver's 36 yard line. I really thought the Patriots should have punted here, even after Brady came onto the field I thought Brady might punt it because going for it here made no sense. In a defensive game like this field position is huge, you can punt it, hold them, and get good field position next drive. Anyway, the Patriots didn't convert, and they started their next three drives on the 4, 3, and 11 yard lines while the Broncos started their drives at their 36, 37 and 44 yard lines. Finally with under 4 minutes left in the half we drove down and got a field goal, but that 4th and 1 call changed both teams' field position for over 17 minutes of the game.

There were two plays in the first half where John Lynch blitzed untouched from the right side. On the first one, Brady fired to the left for about 7 yards to Christian Fauria. The second time, he tried the same thing and Fauria was double covered. Prertty good defense by the Broncos there.

In the second quarter, the Patriots accepted an offensive holding penalty after stopping the Broncos on third down to try to push them out of field goal range and it almost cost them as Denver drove to the 3 yard line.

Denver going for it on 4th and 1 from our 3 yard line. Plays like this are why football is better to wach than any other sport. There aren't critical decisions with huge impacts like this in other games. Football is a game of decisions.

Is there anything more exciting than a good defensive football game? Every point seems so valuable, every yard is so tough, and it makes every play seem that much more intense.

What a ridiculous pass interference call on Asante Samuel in the endzone.

At halftime, I was feeling good, our defense was shutting down Denver's O, our offense had gotten the ball moving, and the only way Denver was able to score was off turnovers, and we were only down 7. All we'd have to do is not turn the ball over anymore.

What a run the Patriots have had over the last 4 years. The third quarter of this game was the first time I can remember seriously thinking the Pats might lose a playoff game since the Oakland snow bowl game to start the 2001 playoffs.

What a huge play in the 3rd quarter by Champ Bailey. The have driven down the field and it looks like we might go up 13-10 or at least make it 10-9, but instead Bailey picks the ball off in the endzone and runs it back 100 yards. And what a play by Ben Watson to run him down! I start yelling that it should be a touchback and finally Belichick reviews it but there's not much on the video to overturn it. Meanwhile I keep saying "Our TIGHT END just ran down Champ Bailey from across the field!!!!" When CBS finally shows it, it is ridiculous. Did you see the extra speed Ben Watson put on when the ref almost blocked him?

So our D stops Denver, it looks like we might have a chance to do something here, and then Troy Brown muffs the punt. Could these turnovers come at any worse times?

Our defense played great in this game, shutting down Denver's running game, holding them to 96 rushing yards (19 in garbage time), which is the second fewest Denver's had all year. We held Denver to 286 yards total, but can't turn the ball over 5 times and win a game. Denver scored 24 points off 4 turnovers, and only had to get 24 offensive yards (plus a questionable 39 yard pass interference call) to get those points. So its really too bad that the D played so well and we lost the games on turnovers like that.

Key Plays:
Obviously the Champ Bailey pick and return was huge in the game, being a ten or 14 point swing, but I think that decision to go for it on 4th and 1 really setup Denver in great field position for most of the first half, really making it tough for us to do anything there.

A great run by the Pats and I'm sure they'll be back next year. Remember the offseason after the 2002 season? We got rid of Lawyer Milloy, Tebucky Jones, and Victor Green, and signed Rodney Harrison and Rosevelt Colvin through free agency. So I'd expect to see some good moves this offseason and the Pats to come back even hungrier next year.

Quick comment on that Colts game:
Who didn't see that Vanderjagt choke coming on that kick after all the trash he's talked in the past?

Patriots Keys to Victory

2006-01-14T12:30:00.000-08:00

The Broncos have won all year by getting an early lead, running the ball, controlling the clock, and winning the turnover battle. So to win, the Patriots have to stop the Broncos on these four points:

The Patriots need to prevent the Broncos from getting a quick lead, and even better, get an early lead themselves.
The Pats have to stop Denver's running game, forcing Plummer to throw.
The Patriots need to find someway to control the clock themselves by getting some kind of running game going.
The Patriots need to protect the ball, and pressure Plummer into making some mistakes.

Divisional Round Preview

2006-01-12T19:32:00.000-08:00

Ok I already made my prediction for the Patriots game. Here are my predictions for the other three games:

The Steelers defense is decent, but I don't think they'll be able to stop Peyton Manning and the Colts. And I don't think Pittsburgh can win in a shootout either. Colts win 28-14.

The Bears - Panthers game should be really low scoring. Both of their defenses are incredible. The key to this game is turnovers. The Bears average ten more points while giving up ten fewer points when they get 1 or more INTs, for a differential of 20 points. The Panthers only 6 games where they did not throw an interceptions, while the Bears only had 5 games where they did not get at least one. The Panthers need to play it really safe, but I don't think their offense is good enough to do much against the Bears. Delhomme throws an INT and the Bears win 17-7.

I don't think the Redskins have much of a chance in this game and I predict they will lose 24-10.

Patriots Broncos Preview

2006-01-12T17:32:00.000-08:00

The Patriots travel to Denver to play the Broncos in the divisional round Saturday night at 8PM.

Let's take a look at Denver's offense vs. the Patriots defense:
The key to this matchup is stopping Denver's running game. Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell both had over 900 yards rushing this year as Denver rushed for 158.7 yards per game (2nd to the Falcons by 0.4 yards). The Patriots, meanwhile, have been great at run defense since the Jets game on December 4th. The Patriots gave up 41, 14, 30, 40, and 87 yards rushing over their last 5 meaningful games (not counting the Dolphins game). This is an average of 42.4 yards per game. Over the last 8 games, the Patriots D has been holding opponents to 45 fewer rushing yards than they normally average and 0.73 yards per carry less than their average. Meanwhile, Denver averaged 35 more yards than the opposing D gives up on average and an extra 0.74 yards per carry. So that's a wash. How has the Pats D fared when playing teams that run as well as Denver? Well the Patriots held the Steelers to 79 rushing yards, but gave up 112 yards to the Chiefs. Of course both these games were before the Pats turned it around in that Jets game. How has Denver fared against dominant run defenses? Well, in two games against the Chargers, the Broncos had 98 and 157 rushing yards. In their game with the Ravens, they were held to 96 rushing yards. So it is possible to stop them somewhat, if keeping them under 100 yards is stopping them. Obviously getting an early lead on the Broncos would help get them out of their running game as well.

So let's assume the Patriots can stop Denver's rushing attack. Will Jake Plummer revert to his old interception throwing form? Or will he pick our young secondary apart? Plummer is averaging 0.375 fewer picks than the defenses he plays give up on average. However our front 7 is averaging 0.6 sacks more than the opposing team normally allows. The Broncos have been held under 150 rushing yards in just 6 games. In those games they have averaged 20 points compared to 27 points when they rush for over 150. They averaged 32 pass attempts in the low rushing games compared to 27 when they break 150 yards. Here is the key stat: when the Broncos rush for 150 yards, they average 1 interception every ten games. When they're under 150 yards, they average an interception per game. If we can stop the running game, that will allow us to let Colvin and McGinest loose and get some pressure on the Plummer and force him into some bad throws. In the 3 games where Denver had under 100 rushing yards, they only averaged 14 points while throwing the ball 39 times. So things look pretty good if we can stop Denver's run game.

How about the other side of the ball? Pats O vs. Denver D:
The Patriots were second in the league in passing yards per game while Denver's defense was 29th (Pats D was 31st). These stats are skewed though since so many teams were passing since they were behind against Denver. Over the last 8 games, the Patriots give up 0.4 fewer fumbles per game that the opposing team normally gets, they also have a whopping 25% higher red zone efficiency than opposing teams normally allow (3rd in the league, Denver is 4th with 19% higher than the opponent's average). The Broncos defense gets 0.47 more ints per game than the opposing offense normally throws, however they allow opposing teams to be 10% more efficient in the red zone than they normally are. The Broncos have a tough run defense, allowing only 3 100 yard games all year. The Patriots run game has been poor, and the run may come tough to New England. This could mean lots of short horizontal passing ala 2 years ago. Basically, Brady has to get it done, which he should be able to do against this defense. The biggest worry for Brady is getting picked off, but if we can get an early lead and not be forced into throwing situations then we should be better off. It certainly looks like we'll have a good chance of scoring when we make it into the red zone.

The Patriots score 3.9 more points per game than the opposing defenses give up on average while holding teams to 6.5 points fewer than their season average. The Broncos score 4.5 more points per game than their opponents defense normally give up while holding opponents to 2.5 fewer points than they are used to.

I think the Patriots will be able to hold the Broncos to around 100 yards, forcing Plummer to throw some extra attempts and hopefully throw an interception. In the 5 games where Plummer threw at least one pick, Denver's offense scored only 20.6 points compared to 26.6 without any picks, and their defense allowed 21.2 points compared to 13.8 without. In the two games that Plummer threw 2 or more interceptions, their defense allowed a whopping 32.5 points per game while only scoring 18.5.

I'm predicting the Patriots win this game 27-17.

Computer Predictions for Divisional Round

2006-01-11T18:47:00.000-08:00

Well the computer thinks a bye week and homefield advantage is just too much:

Divisional Playoffs Predictions
Colts 28 - Steelers 17
Broncos 27 - Patriots 24 OT
Bears 20 - Panthers 17
Seahawks 27 - Redskins 21

At least the computer has the Patriots coming closest, with the game going to OT.

Quick Comments

2006-01-08T20:07:00.000-08:00

The Patriots were the only home team to win a playoff game this weekend.
Each game this weekend featured a QB with playoff experience vs a QB with no playoff experience and the experienced QBs won every game.

The Patriots are the only road team predicted to win in the polls on espn.com. In fact, they're the biggest favorite of all the games:
New England over Denver - 65.2%
Chicago over Carolina - 60%
Seattle over Washington - 59.5%
Indianapolis over Pittsburgh - 53%

Patriots 28 - Jaguars 3

2006-01-07T23:27:00.000-08:00

What a game by the Patriots. The defense was dominant throughout, the front 7 were great and the defensive backs played well too. And the offense really turned it up a notch in the second half.

Let's take a look at the defense first:
The Pats front seven was extremely dominant, shutting down the run (Fred Taylor had only 24 yards rushing) and getting lots of pressure on the quarterbacks with six sacks. The defensive backs played well, with Eugene Wilson's big hit for the fumble in the first half and Asante Samuel's interception and 73 yard return for a TD at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Samuel even knocked down a pass in the middle of the field in the second half, on Jimmy Smith I think, something I can't remember Samuel doing all year. Usually he's way off the receivers. Also, the Pats defense spent a lot of time in nickel and dime with Troy Brown and Hank Poteat playing corner and they played pretty well. Anyway, great performance by the defense holding the Jags to 3 points, and all of this without Tedy Bruschi in there. Monty Beisel and Chad Brown didn't look too bad in the middle today either.

On offense, the Patriots struggled in the first half. I think the offensive play calling in the first half was poor, they seemed to pass the ball on first down a lot of the time. And Reggie Hayward was getting lots of pressure on Brady every play, really beating Brandon Gorin a lot. Finally on the long pass to Branch that was dropped they double-teamed him but until then he was really a force. In the second half, the Pats offense was a lot better, the play calling improved as the Pats ran on most first downs, giving them shorter second and third down situations. They scored on their first two possessions of the 2nd half, including a great play by Ben Watson, spinning and breaking a tackle, staying inbounds after another hit and then hitting the jets and scoring on a 63 yard play.

There were some great performances in the game:
Willie McGinest had 4.5 sacks, a playoff record, and became the all time postseason sack leader. Andre Davis had a big reverse for a first down, a very "heads-up" recovery of a Ben Watson fumble in the red zone, and a couple nice tackles on punt and kickoff coverage.
Rosevelt Colvin has been incredible the last few weeks and was so again today.
Troy Brown played nearly every defensive stop from the middle of the second quarter on, and also scored the Patriots first touchdown in the 2nd quarter.

This game was the Patriots tenth consecutive playoff win, surpassing the Packers of the 1960s for a NFL record. It also put Belichick at 11-1 in the playoffs, best all time and improved Brady's record to 10-0.

Now we have to wait for the outcome of the Bengals Steelers game to see who we'll play next week. If the Steelers win, we go to Denver; if the Bengals win we go to Indy. We lost badly to both teams when we played them earlier in the season. I think Denver is probably the easier team, so I'd rather go to Denver. Plus, maybe we'd get lucky and Pittsburgh could upset Indy and we could have the AFC Championship Game back at home.

Wild Card Weekend Preview

2006-01-06T12:00:00.000-08:00

I figured I'd toss in my predictions for the rest of this weekend's games as well.

I already said the Patriots would win 24-7.

I think that everyone is giving the Bengals too little credit. They did win their last game with the Steelers. And they will be at home. I think this will be a close one by the Bengals win 27-24.

In New York, the big question is which side of the two-face Carolina team will show up? I think the good side will show up and the Giants injured linebackers will be too much for them to overcome. Carolina wins 24-14.

The Buccaneers and Redskins are in a rematch of a midseason game that Tampa won 36-35. This game should not have anywhere near as many points. I can't help to picture Tampa's 28-0 loss here and think that they can't really compete with a good team. Meanwhile the Redskins have won their last 5 in a row behind the running of Clinton Portis. I think the Redskins win this one 17-14.

And I'm going to give you the Super Bowl prediction right now:
The New England Patriots win an unprecedented 3rd straight Super Bowl over the Chicago Bears. By 3 points of course.

Patriots Jaguars Preview

2006-01-06T11:55:00.000-08:00

There has already been a ton written about this game in the newspapers, ESPN.com, etc. so I'm not sure that I have much new stuff to add. The majority of the media things the Patriots have little chance of losing this game. Jacksonville is 12-4 but most of their wins were against losing teams and they were not too impressive against those teams.

Here's what I see as the key matchups for the game:
On offense, the key will be the interior of the Patriots offensive line (OG Logan Mankins, C Russ Hochsteing and OG Stephen Neal) vs. the Jaguars' mammoth defensive tackles, John Henderson and Marcus Stroud. It might be very hard for the Patriots to run the ball in this game, I wouldn't be surprised to see them try some of the spread formation short passing stuff they used to do when they couldn't run the ball. In passing situations, I think that Brady will beat them whether they bring pressure or leave guys back in coverage.

On defense, we need to shut down the run like we have in recent weeks. Assuming Tedy Bruschi is able to play then I think the front 7 could have another dominating performance and hold the Jaguars rushing game down. Without it, they'll be forced to pass. Our DBs are much smaller than their WRs, so it will be important for to get pressure on Leftwich.

I keep going back to the Pats last meaningful game, against Tampa Bay. Tampa has a better defense than Jacksonville and the Jags' offense is not that much better. We beat Tampa 28-0 so I think the team performs like they did in that game, we should win. This is Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in a home playoff game against an inexperienced team, so I think the Patriots will win 24-7.

Brady Tidbit

2006-01-05T13:22:00.000-08:00

From the Globe:

His most astounding postseason statistic is probably interceptions. During the regular season, Brady averages an interception every 39 passes. In the playoffs, he has thrown three interceptions in 304 attempts; that's one every 101 throws or so, against some of the best teams in the league.

Computer Predictions for Wild Card Games

2006-01-03T20:51:00.000-08:00

Wild Card Weekend Predictions
Patriots 24 - Jaguars 21
Steelers 31 - Bengals 28 OT
Giants 24 - Panthers 20
Buccaneers 24 - Redskins 21

Pats Dolphins Review

2006-01-03T20:47:00.000-08:00

Well the Patriots rested their starters and lost this game. Which means we get to play the Jaguars this coming Saturday night.

A few comments from the game:

Matt Cassel looked pretty good. He looked a lot better than Rohan Davey ever did.

Why are fans so insane for Doug Flutie? After they took Brady out fans kept screaming for Flutie, starting chants, and booing Cassel. Ridiculous. I tried to start a Cassel chant but no one joined me.

Quick look at the playoffs:

In the AFC, 4 of the 6 teams are returning playoff teams from last year, with only the Bengals and Jaguars being newcomers.
In the NFC, the Seahawks are the only team returning from last year. The Bears and Buccaneeers both went from last in their division last year to first this year.

I'll post on the Patriots Jaguars game later in the week.

Patriots - Dolphins

2005-12-31T10:20:00.000-08:00

Well this game is pretty meaningless for the Patriots. They do still have a chance to move up to the number 3 seed, although a lot of people think the Pats would be better off with the #4. Here are the scenarios.

If the Patriots lose or the Bengals beat the Chiefs, the Patriots will be the #4 seed. They will play Jacksonville next weekend and if they win they would go to Indy (unless the Bengals get upset by the Steelers/Chiefs).

If the Patriots win and the Bengals lose to the Chiefs, the Patriots will be the #3 seed. They would likely play the Steelers (unless the Steelers lose to the Lions, then we'd play the Chiefs). If the Patriots win they would go to Denver.

A lot of people have said the Pats might be better off with the 4 seed so they don't have to play the Steelers, who are looking pretty dominant right now. My view is, if we can't beat the Steelers at home then we certainly can't beat the Colts in Indy, so whether we face the Steelers or not doesnt bother me that much. I'm more concerned with how the seeding affects the Colts game. If we're the 3 seed, we don't have to play them after their bye, we'd instead play them in the AFC champsionship game after they hopefully had a tough game the week before. Plus if the Colts were upset then we'd get the AFC Champsionship game back in Foxboro. So I'm rooting for the 3 seed.

Anyway, the Pats could be playing on a short week so the starters probably won't play more than a half. Crazy that the Dolphins might finish on a 6 game win streak to end up 9-7.

One last comment: I can't stand these sportscasters who keep saying how the Chargers are the best team not in the playoffs and its a shame they're not in. If they were that good of a team they would have beaten Miami. Or Kansas City. Or Dallas. Or Pittsburgh. Or Philadelphia. You get the idea. Just because when they win, they can win big, doesnt make them a good team. You have to be able to win the close games against the tough teams.

Computer Predictions for Week 17

2005-12-31T10:19:00.000-08:00

Week 17 Predictions
Patriots 27 - Dolphins 20
Bills 23 - Jets 21
Steelers 27 - Lions 13
Ravens 21 - Browns 17
Colts 35 - Cardinals 17
Jaguars 24 - Titans 17
Giants 24 - Raiders 21
Chargers 28 - Broncos 23
Chiefs 33 - Bengals 28
Eagles 23 - Redskins 20 OT
Cowboys 31 - Rams 20
Seahawks 31 - Packers 21
Vikings 21 - Bears 20
Buccaneers 27 - Saints 17
Panthers 23 - Falcons 21
49ers 23 - Texans 20 OT

Last Week:
Picked winning team: 9-7, 0.562
Against the spread: 4-12, 0.25
Picking over/under: 11-5, 0.688

Season:
Picked winning team: 113-53, 0.681
Against the spread: 83-83, 0.5
Picking over/under: 70-96, 0.422

Computer Predictions for Week 16

2005-12-23T15:27:00.000-08:00

Week 16 Predictions
Dolphins 24 - Titans 21 OT
Patriots 24 - Jets 21
Steelers 21 - Browns 20
Bengals 31 - Bills 21
Ravens 24 - Vikings 17
Jaguars 21 - Texans 17
Broncos 28 - Raiders 20
Chiefs 30 - Chargers 27 OT
Giants 21 - Redskins 20
Bears 21 - Packers 17
Saints 27 - Lions 21
Buccaneers 24 - Falcons 20
Panthers 24 - Cowboys 16
Rams 23 - 49ers 20
Colts 28 - Seahawks 24
Eagles 24 - Cardinals 23

Last Week:
Picked winning team: 12-4, 0.75
Against the spread: 6-10, 0.375
Picking over/under: 6-10, 0.375

Trends from the last six weeks

2005-12-20T08:37:00.000-08:00

Good post on the reiss pieces blog about the pats improvement statistically since they were 4-4.

http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/reiss_pieces/2005/12/then_now.html

Random comments

2005-12-18T14:20:00.000-08:00

What a game by the Chargers!!! Shawn Merriman was incredible, Manning was getting hit all day.

Now that the Texans have won a 2nd game, the New Years Day game between Houston and San Francisco should be very entertaining. Most likely, the loser gets the first pick in the draft and Reggie Bush. Who would have thought you have the two worst teams in the league battling for the first pick in the draft on the last week of the season?

We’re baaaaaaaack

2005-12-18T12:17:00.000-08:00

Do you think that game put a scare into the AFC playoff teams?

I thought the Patriots had a good chance to win this game and finally beat a good team, but to win 28-0 like that against the 9-4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers was impressive. The Patriots came out and had a Charlie Weis – like first drive, got the TD for a lead, and never gave it up. Defensively, they totally shut down the Bucs running game and pressured Simms all day long. What’s amazing is that we won this game 28-0 with Tom Brady being off most of the game, for most of the 1^st half and the 3^rd quarter he was misfiring on most of his passes. If he had been on target, it could have been much worse for Tampa Bay.

I think if we can continue to shut down the run and pressure the QB like that, we will have a chance against any team in the playoffs. How did the Patriots defense turn it around? They got Bruschi back and moved Vrabel in the middle with him (more importantly, that means they removed Chad Brown and Monty Beisel from the middle). With Vrabel in the middle, Rosie Colvin has been starting outside, and he and McGinest have been tearing it up out here. Every game those two guys are making big plays. Seymour has gotten healthy and come back, which has also helped improve Vince Wilfork’s play. Finally, in the defensive backfield, the Pats replaced Duane Starks with rookie Ellis Hobbs, who is playing really well. In fact, in this game, the Buccaneers only threw at his side of the field 3-4 times. And the Patriots have finally found their safety in Artrell Hawkins. Not starting a new safety every week has helped the team greatly.

In the last three games, the Patriots defense has given up a total of 10 points and 85 rushing yards. Very impressive.

The Patriots still have some room to improve before the playoffs, especially in the rushing game and special teams units.

So we have games with the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins left, but we’ve already won the AFC East and we are pretty much guaranteed to be the four seed in the playoffs. This means we’ll host a game the first weekend against the five seed, most likely the Jacksonville Jaguars. If we win, we would most likely go to Indianapolis (unless the six seed (Chargers? Steelers?) upsets the three seed (Broncos? Bengals?), in which case we go to play the two seed.

It feels good to see the Patriots finally able to compete with the best in the league again.

Patriots Buccaneers Preview

2005-12-16T17:21:00.000-08:00

Patriots - Buccaneers... this will be a good game. There's lots to this game. There's the Patriots offense vs the Tampa defense, which is third in the league in points allowed and has another defensive genius in Monte Kiffin coaching it. Then there's the Belichick's Patriots D vs Jon Gruden's Tampa offense. From the Globe:
Belichick seemed to enjoy speaking about Jon Gruden, saying he seems to have a "legitimate detest for defense." Belichick also noted Gruden is the type of offensive coach who doesn't just stick the knife into a defense -- "he sticks the knife in and twists it, not only to make you uncomfortable, but to make you real uncomfortable."

Anyway, this game will be a much bigger challenge than the Jets or Bills, since the Buccaneers are 9-4 and leading their division. It will be interesting to see if the Patriots continue to be aggressive and rush more like the last two weeks or sit back. I would like to see them follow a similar game plan to the last two weeks: offensively, run the ball and control the clock, and defensively, shut down the run and pressure the QB. We'll see.

-T

Computer Predictions for Week 15

2005-12-16T17:20:00.000-08:00

Week 15 Predictions
Patriots 23 - Buccaneers 20
Dolphins 27 - Jets 17
Broncos 27 - Bills 21
Ravens 21 - Packers 20
Seahawks 23 - Titans 21
Colts 31 - Chargers 21
Jaguars 27 - 49ers 13
Texans 24 - Cardinals 21
Raiders 24 - Browns 20
Giants 28 - Chiefs 20
Cowboys 21 - Redskins 20
Bears 24 - Falcons 17
Vikings 24 - Steelers 21
Bengals 28 - Lions 24
Panthers 24 - Saints 20
Eagles 27 - Rams 21

Last Week:
Picked winning team: 12-4, 0.75
Against the spread: 5-11, 0.312
Picking over/under: 7-9, 0.438

Season:
Picked winning team: 92-42, 0.687
Against the spread: 73-61, 0.545
Picking over/under: 53-81, 0.396

Crowd Noise

2005-12-15T14:27:00.000-08:00

There is lots of debate about the noise level at Gillette Stadium going on in the Patriots mailbag on Boston.com (http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/extras/askreiss/12_13_05/)

Here are the highlights:

Not to beat a dead horse, but I have one more comment on the fan noise at the stadium. I have been a season ticket holder for 13 seasons and am lucky enough to have my seats on the sidelines in the 100's very close to the field. I can tell you that since Gillette Stadium opened I can count on one hand the number of times the same people are on hand for a game. Corporations own most of the seats around me and they send different customers or employees to the games each week. These attendees then proceed to call everyone in their phonebook to tell them how good the seats are and ask them to look for them on TV instead of paying attention to the game. Each week this season, I have been yelled and screamed at from these people behind me to sit down and shut up, they can't see the game. One person actually said to me "I paid too much money for these seats not to sit in them, so sit down and shut up." In addition, I have gotten pretty tired of trying to make noise on 3rd and 15 only to have the defense give up a play for a first down. It's not any fun attending games when you have to endure the verbal slings from fans, the lack of passion from some of the players, and the poor play execution that had been the new look of the Patriots. I think with improved play especially on defense, the team may hear more noise from the fans.
Wendy, Wells, Maine

I will start this with an answer to the last mailbag and end with a question. The reason Patriots fans do not make enough noise is because the real fans who are passionate, loyal, long-time Patriot fans are the ones sitting home watching the game on TV. The tickets are pricey and the "friendly" atmosphere ironically "forced" upon fans has created a snobby wine & cheese crowd. It has become "trendy" to go to a Pats game and this allows those with deep pockets to go to a "desired" event where they can sit down and enjoy the "show." The problem is that fans like me go looking to see MY team WIN, not to sit on my butt hassling those who choose to "stand." Simply put, the real fans are not the ones at the games -- it's a shame. And, when they do go, it's almost not worth the risk of the Krafts' zero tolerance policy. My question -- do you think this hype surrounding crowd noise will force Bob Kraft to change his season ticket policy?
Adam DeHaven, Taunton

Here's my estimation of the problem:
It's (1) the stadium (but not why you think) and (2) the bandwagon fans

When I first started going to games in 1993, there were no were near as many people trying to go the games. People always said they preferred to ask the game on TV and I had to explain to them why I wanted to go to a game at crummy Foxboro Stadium. The lousy team and crumy stadium was like a test of how much of a fan you were. Only the real fans went to the games, and we made noise, and we're still making noise today. But now, with the nice new stadium and the team winning Super Bowls, people actually WANT to go to games. But they want to go to enjoy the stadium and watch the game while sitting in their comfortable seats. These new bandwagon fans do not want to stand up and yell, and they don't feel any need to support the team in key situations. So by making the stadium so much better, we've kind of lowered the bar on how good of a fan you have to be to attend the game.

Two other comments on the emails in the mailbag:
People are not being quiet because they're afraid of being kicked out. You're not going to get kicked out for yelling or being loud. Maybe these people are trying to say, they're afraid to get drunk and loud because they might be kicked out. But from my experience, the non-alcoholic section in the old stadium was much louder than the regular section I'm in now at Gillette.

Also, there were lots of comments on how the season tickets are still affordable. Some people suggested that you can sell your tickets to a few games and then the price is OK. But thats the whole point!!! If you're going to sell your tickets to some games (which you would have trouble doing in 1993), you're going to get rid of the tix to the bad games, i.e. the game against the 2-8 New York Jets. So all these new fans that just want to enjoy the stadium and not yell are attending these games. If you have the season ticket holders selling half their games every year, then thats a lot of inexperienced and possibly non-supportive fans at each game.

Patriots Bills Review

2005-12-12T20:38:00.000-08:00

So let me start with some comments from my trip:

Jeff and I left around noon on Friday. The snow wasn't too bad at first but got ridiculous by central Mass. The highway wasn't plowed at all, the wind was whipping across the road, you couldn't see a car length in front of you. So Jeff and I decided to get off and see a movie at the Auburn mall to let the storm pass. Of course, one mile before the exit, traffic came to a complete halt. By the time we started again 45 minutes later (now 3 PM), the storm was gone, the roads were clear, and we made it to Buffalo by 8:30 PM.

The Buffalo fans: Well nearly half the seats at the stadium were empty, and I would say over a quarter of the fans there were cheering for the Patriots. One Buffalo fan told me to kick their asses so they could fire their GM and head coach. Not a bad idea, I think. Anyway, everytime the Patriots got a first down, I said "That play is good for another Patriots FIRST DOWN!!!" just like they do at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots set a franchise record for most first downs in a game so obviously I was doing that a lot. Thus I got hit in the head with a snowball. Other than that things were fine til Hilda started arguing with a Yankees fan behind us. That was ridiculous.
What else was ridiculous was one of the Bills fans sitting behind me was like, "wow the field is covered in snow." This was at the beginning of the game when there were only a few patches of snow on the field. The fan later said "Wow its really coming down hard," while of course it was snowing really lightly. I really thought Buffalo fans were used to the snow, I thought that was really strange.

On to the game,
The Patriots totally dominated this game. The Bills had a chance to take an early lead after a 58 yard pass to Lee Evans, but Losman through an interception in the endzone to Asante Samuel. After that is was all Patriots. There were some ridiculous stats from this one. The Patriots held the ball for over 40 minutes, had a franchise record 32 first downs, and were 69% on third down. On defense, they held the Bills to 14 yards, held McGahee to 3 yards, and held the Bills to just 2/10 on third down. The Patriots dominated the game. To set a franchise record for first downs on the road in the snow, that is really something.

Anyway, in previous games the Bills had played pretty well at home, with only close losses to Carolina and Atlanta. But clearly they were not into this game at all after their demoralizing loss to the Dolphins last week and Eric Moulds suspension. Either way, we were unable to dominate any teams this year until now, so this is a good sign. But I wouldn't start saying the Pats are a team to fear in the playoffs until we see how they play against Tampa Bay this Saturday. After playing the two worst teams in the worst division in the NFL, the Patriots will be playing a team that is leading its division at 9-4. The Buccs dont have the greatest offense, but the game should be a real good test.

One other note, the Dolphins shocked the San Diego Chargers and stayed in the AFC East race. Thats three straight wins (more than we've had) for the Dolphins since their offensive coordinator moved from the press box to the sideline.

Patriots - Bills Preview

2005-12-08T20:18:00.000-08:00

The Patriots are playing the Bills this weekend. This will be a good test after the Patriots looked a little better after the Jets last week. Obviously the Jets are horrible, but the Pats have played other horrible teams and their defense has still played poorly. So it was an improvement. But the Patriots have been unable to play consistently from week to week and they've been completely unable to compete with any teams that are good at all, which could be the Bills at home. The Bills are terrible on the road (0-6), but they are 4-2 at home with the only losses being close games with the Panthers and Falcons. After that demoralizing loss last week, the Bills might play poorly anyway.

Here are my keys to the game:

Get some pressure on the QB! It worked against the Jets, lets try it again against the Bills.
Run the ball! Let's try to control the clock and run the ball again with Dillon and Faulk like last week.
Special Teams - Terence McGee is an incredible kick returner, we have to make sure we dont let him run one back against us.

I'm leaving tomorrow at noon for the game. Jeff and I are driving up and hanging out with Bryan and Hilda for the weekend. Much better than last year when Brad called me at 11 PM on Saturday and I got Brent and G and drove from midnight til 7 AM to get there.

OH and Tedy Bruschi came and spoke at the hospital on Monday. There were only about 25-30 people there too. He just spoke about recovering from a stroke and stuff, but it was entertaining.

Computer Predictions for Week 14

2005-12-06T21:00:00.000-08:00

Week 14 Predictions
Raiders 24 - Jets 21
Bills 24 - Patriots 21
Steelers 20 - Bears 17
Bengals 33 - Browns 20
Titans 27 - Texans 17
Colts 24 - Jaguars 21
Broncos 24 - Ravens 16
Chargers 31 - Dolphins 17
Giants 21 - Eagles 17
Cowboys 27 - Chiefs 17
Packers 27 - Lions 17
Vikings 31 - Rams 21
Panthers 24 - Buccaneers 16
Falcons 28 - Saints 21
Seahawks 31 - 49ers 14
Redskins 26 - Cardinals 23 OT

Last Week:
Picked winning team: 12-4, 0.75
Against the spread: 7-9, 0.438
Picking over/under: 7-9, 0.438

Season:
Picked winning team: 80-38, 0.678
Against the spread: 68-50, 0.576
Picking over/under: 46-72, 0.39

Crowd Noise

2005-12-06T20:32:00.000-08:00

There have been a lot of comments about the noise level at Gillette Stadium after Richard Seymour's comments after the game that the crowd was louder for the Victoria's Secret supermodel than for the team. Now I agree with Seymour that the crowd hasn't been too loud, but also it certainly wasn't loud for the Giselle either.

Anyway, here is my explanation of why the crowd noise is so poor:

The Stadium - The new stadium is more open and the seats are farther from the field, resulting in less noise. I don't understand why NFL owners don't bring in acoustics engineers when they design new stadiums to try to get them as loud as possible while still making them comfortable. I'm sure there are some simple changes they could make to improve the sound level.
Ticket Prices - Ticket prices now are 3 times what they were in 2001, meaning fewer people can afford to go to all the games. In the old stadium, I sat next to the same people every week, now its rare I see the same people more than 4-5 games in a year. And with unexperienced bandwagon fans, you get less noise.
Apathy - The fans are used to seeing the Patriots win Super Bowls and with this year's prospects looking grim, a lot of them don't seem to want to put in the effort to help the team win. Those fans suck.

Pro Bowl

2005-12-06T20:30:00.000-08:00

Hey everybody,

Tom Brady, Josh Miller, and a few other deserving Patriots are just a few votes shy of making the Pro Bowl. Voting ends December 16th, so go vote now!!!

VOTE NOW!

Dirty Jersey

2005-12-05T18:23:00.000-08:00

The Patriots finally got an opposing QB's jersey dirty. They actually got pressure on Brooks Bollinger all day. The defense held the Jets to 3 points and about a hundred and fifty yards. But this is, of course, the Jets, who average 11.9 points a game and are competing for the Reggie Bush pick in the NFL draft.

But it was good to see the Patriots defense do that, since they have played bad teams like New Orleans or Miami and been unable to look that good.

GOOD:
Rosie Colvin had a great game, especially in the first half.

BAD:
Someone smashed my car window while I was at the game.

Oh and Bruschi came and talked at the hospital today, mostly about coming back from a stroke, it was pretty good, there was only about 30 people there.

Computer Predictions for Week 13

2005-12-04T08:38:00.000-08:00

Week 13 Predictions
Patriots 28 - Jets 20
Dolphins 21 - Bills 20
Steelers 27 - Bengals 24
Jaguars 21 - Browns 20
Ravens 24 - Texans 20
Colts 31 - Titans 17
Chargers 28 - Raiders 21
Broncos 24 - Chiefs 23
Giants 21 - Cowboys 17
Eagles 27 - Seahawks 23
Bears 20 - Packers 17
Lions 24 - Vikings 23
Buccaneers 24 - Saints 21 OT
Panthers 28 - Falcons 21
Redskins 27 - Rams 24
Cardinals 21 - 49ers 20

Last Week:
Picked winning team: 10-6, 0.625
Against the spread: 6-10, 0.375
Picking over/under: 5-11, 0.312

Season:
Picked winning team: 68-34, 0.667
Against the spread: 61-41, 0.598
Picking over/under: 39-63, 0.382

Random Comments

2005-11-29T18:56:00.000-08:00

Defensive Teams

No one is really taking the Bears seriously as a Super Bowl contender yet. Even though defense wins Super Bowls, no one ever believes in the team with the defense because their games are always close. The Colts go out and win games by 20 points because they have a great offense. Teams with great defenses go out and win games by 3-7 points. But the thing is 3 points is huge margin if you're only giving up 7 points a game. So take the Bears seriously, they could make a run at the Super Bowl.

Lions

I can't believe the Lions fired Steve Mariucci. Wait, I mean I can believe that. But Matt Millen is the man that should really be fired. No team has had a worse record during his span as GM than the Lions. He has made terrible picks like Joey Harrington, 3 WR in the top 10, etc. And he's brought in the wrong coaches. It's like with quarterbacks, you can see them and just tell if they have IT or not. And Matt Millen does not have IT. The guy will never put together a winning team.

Super Bowl Prediction

Bears v. Colts

Colts Prediction

2005-11-29T18:45:00.000-08:00

The Colts are 11-0 now after their win over the Steelers on Monday night.
Here is their remaining schedule:

	Sun, Dec 4	Tennessee
	Sun, Dec 11	at Jacksonville
	Sun, Dec 18	San Diego
	Sat, Dec 24	at Seattle
	Sun, Jan 1	Arizona

I'm predicting that the Colts will lose December 11th at Jacksonville.
Here are my reasons:

The Jaguars always play the Colts tough, beating them the last two years.
It's a division game, which are always close.
The Jaguars may be the best team Indy faces this year (they did beat the Bengals, Steelers, and Seahawks, who are the other good teams the Colts play).
The Jaguars may even be the second best team in the NFL after the Colts.

Who are the other good teams out there?
AFC:
Denver? You know they can't beat the Colts, I think the Jags may be better than Denver.
Steelers or Bengals? Both lost to the Jaguars.
NFC:
Seahawks? Lost to the Jaguars.
Giants? Panthers? Bears? Cowboys? These teams may be some of the best in the league. Although the Giants lost to the Seahawks this weekend and have only won one road game, in San Fran. The Cowboys lost to the Broncos on Thanksgiving and the Panthers lost to the Bears this week. The Bears actually could be the second best team in the league right now. Either way, I would put the Jaguars in the top 3 and definitely the best team the Colts will face.

Patriots - Chiefs Review

2005-11-28T14:38:00.000-08:00

Well you had to expect the Patriots to lose that game after the way they struggled against the Miami Dolphins and the New Orleans Saints. What I didn't expect was for the offense to play so poorly. In the first half, nothing was working on offense, and Tom Brady actually looked confused back in the pocket.

I wonder how much of an effect Charlie Weis could have had in that game?

Anyway, the loss doesn't mean too much to the Patriots, we're still 2 games up on the Buffalo Bills for the division lead, and still clearly the last of the four division leading teams.

Here's a little tidbit from the Boston Globe:
Artrell Hawkins started at safety and Heath Evans was in on the first play at running back, giving the Patriots 43 different starters this season, surpassing last year's total of 42. Hawkins is the seventh player to start at safety, and 12th to start in the secondary. Last year the Patriots used nine players as starters in the defensive backfield.

I believe that is a new NFL record, I think the 42 different starters we used the last two years were the NFL record before now. Hard to believe we were able to win those two Super Bowls with all those injuries. But this year is pretty ridiculous, especially when you add in the guys like Ted Johnson, Ty Law, Keith Traylor, David Patten, and Joe Andruzzi that we let go during hte offseason in addition to the guys we've lost to injury. And of course no Romeo or Charlie...

Patriots Chiefs Preview

2005-11-27T10:04:00.000-08:00

Basically, this is a good test for the Patriots. Assuming they start Hobbs, Samuel, Stone, and Wilson in the defensive backfield again, this will be three straight weeks with the same defensive backs, something they have yet to do this season. Obviously the Chiefs are much better than the Dolphins or Saints so this will be a good test.

On offense, the key is the offensive line. With all the backups in there, it will be important to protect Brady well and open up some holes for the rush.

On defense, the defensive line needs to step it up and get some pass rush going and help stop the run. The defensive backs just need to stop giving up the huge plays they have been this season. I'm especially worried about Tony Gonzalez getting deep on the Pats.
So basically, stop the deep passes and get some turnovers.

Computer Predictions for Week 12

2005-11-24T10:19:00.000-08:00

Week 12 Predictions
Jets 24 - Saints 21
Panthers 24 - Bills 21
Bengals 28 - Ravens 17
Titans 23 - 49ers 16
Colts 31 - Steelers 21
Rams 27 - Texans 24
Raiders 27 - Dolphins 14
Patriots 24 - Chiefs 23
Eagles 24 - Packers 23
Chargers 27 - Redskins 24
Cowboys 24 - Broncos 21 OT
Vikings 24 - Browns 17
Lions 28 - Falcons 21
Buccaneers 20 - Bears 17 OT
Seahawks 27 - Giants 23
Jaguars 23 - Cardinals 20 OT

Last Week:
Picked winning team: 8-8, 0.5
Against the spread: 11-5, 0.688
Picking over/under: 7-9, 0.438

Season:
Picked winning team: 58-28, 0.674
Against the spread: 55-31, 0.64
Picking over/under: 34-52, 0.395

Patriots Saints Review

2005-11-24T10:11:00.000-08:00

Well the Patriots did beat the Saints. They started out going up 14-0, including a 98 yard drive for the first TD. Then they fell apart and couldn't do much of anything, but did enough to win. I think the defense was better than it had been, but there was still no pass rush in the 2nd half. At least the defensive backs are imporving.

A few things I want to comment on:

GOOD:

Willie McGinest was incredible in the first half, getting to the quarterback a bunch of times and stopping some running plays in the backfield. Incredible for how old he is.

Mike Vrabel was great at middle linebacker as well.

Heath Evans - he looked great, the way he runs is really good.

BAD:

In the second half, on third down I think, the Patriots called TWO timeouts and then called a stupid outside run with Patrick Pass that went for a loss of ten yards.

Why did the Patriots keep throwing deep balls to Andre Davis down the sideline? The ones down the middle I can understand some but the ones on the sideline there was just no chance he was going to catch, it just seems like they were getting desperate and throwing deep downfield. Although the low point has to be in the Colts game went Belichick went for the onside kick in the 3rd quarterback, that shows such a lack of confidence in the defense that its incredible.

Anyway, all we can hope for is that the defense continues to improve the next few weeks.

Patriots Saints Preview

2005-11-19T14:17:00.000-08:00

Well the Patriots have lost two more players to the IR list: Randall Gay and Dan Koppen. This is getting pretty ridiculous isn't it?

Despite this fact, the Patriots have a legitimate chance to win two games in a row for the first time this year!!!!
Thus far the Patriots have followed every win with a loss (and every loss with a win).
This gives the Patriots some strange company.

Here are the other teams that have yet to win two games in a row this year:
Arizona, Baltimore, Cleveland, Detroit, Green Bay, Houston, Miami, New Orleans, New York Jets, San Francisco, and Tennessee.

And here are the other teams that have yet to lose two games in a row this year:
Atlanta, Carolina, Cincinatti, Dallas, Denver, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, New York Giants, Pittsburgh, and Seattle.

So the Patriots are in a group of likely playoff teams that haven't lost two games in a row, and also in a group of teams looking for top ten picks in the draft that have yet to win two games in a row. The Patriots are the only team on both lists... what does this mean?

Anyway, hopefully the Patriots will be able to overcome all their injuries and beat the Saints tomorrow, it would certainly be nice to see them hold Aaron Brooks to under a 300 yards, something they've been unable to do to quarterbacks this year.

Computer Predictions for Week 11

2005-11-19T14:16:00.000-08:00

Week 11 Predictions
Patriots 27 - Saints 20
Browns 23 - Dolphins 17
Bengals 28 - Colts 24
Steelers 21 - Ravens 17
Titans 20 - Jaguars 17
Chiefs 24 - Texans 23
Broncos 31 - Jets 14
Chargers 31 - Bills 17
Giants 27 - Eagles 20
Redskins 24 - Raiders 21
Cowboys 28 - Lions 17
Packers 31 - Vikings 21
Panthers 21 - Bears 20
Falcons 23 - Buccaneers 20
Rams 28 - Cardinals 21
Seahawks 28 - 49ers 17

Last Week:
Picked winning team: 10-4, 0.714
Against the spread: 9-5, 0.643
Picking over/under: 5-9, 0.357

Pats Dolphins Preview

2005-11-11T19:34:00.000-08:00

Well Duane Starks is now on IR, so at least we won't be able t complain about him anymore. Of course that means that a rookie or a WR or a LB are going to have to start at defensive back now.
Depending on the health of Randall Gay and James Sanders, it could be Sanders at safety and Gay at corner, or Gay at safety and Hobbs at corner, or Sanders at safety and Hobbs at corner. Or we could see special teamer Mike Stone at safety or even LB Don Davis. And at corner we could see WR Troy Brown or maybe Hank Poteat.

This is a game the Patriots should be able to win. but you never know. I'm sure it will be close, it will come down to the end, I'll guess the Patriots win 27-24.

Week 10 Computer Predictions

2005-11-11T19:16:00.000-08:00

Week 10 Predictions
Patriots 24 - Dolphins 21 OT
Bills 24 - Chiefs 21
Steelers 27 - Browns 16
Colts 36 - Texans 14
Jaguars 20 - Ravens 13
Raiders 24 - Broncos 21 OT
Giants 31 - Vikings 20
Cowboys 24 - Eagles 20
Bears 27 - 49ers 10
Lions 27 - Cardinals 17
Redskins 17 - Buccaneers 16
Panthers 28 - Jets 17
Falcons 24 - Packers 23
Seahawks 34 - Rams 21

Last Week:
Picked winning team: 9-5, 0.643
Against the spread: 5-9, 0.357
Picking over/under: 5-9, 0.357

UGLY

2005-11-09T15:08:00.000-08:00

The Patriots Colts game on Monday night was UGLY. The offense didn't look horrible (but those three and outs don't help any) but the defense was disgusting. The defensive line gets no pressure on the quarterback and the defensive backs looked like high schoolers.

I really think you have to question Belichick's decision to let Keith Traylor go in the offseason. In Belichick's system, the nose tackle is a key player for the defense and needs to take up two blockerse. Traylor and Wilfork split time last year and got it done. This year we just have Wilfork and he is playing terribly. What's bad is that we faced this problem in 2002 (when we missed the playoffs), so Belichick should realize that you need a good nose tackle. In fact he traded for Ted Washington in 2003 and then got Keith Traylor and Vince Wilfork in 2004. But why would you keep just one guy, a 2nd year player who only started a couple games last year? Why not keep Traylor around too? Especially with injuries, etc, you would think it wouldn't hurt to have a backup. I can't believe Belichick has made this same mistake twice now.

As for the defensive backs, they just look terrible. I do wonder who else was available to bring in, but of course you couldn't have expected Rodney Harrison, Guss Scott, Chad Scott, and Tyrone Poole to all go on IR. But Asante Samuel, who started last year, looks bad too, as does Eugene Wilson, the starter at safety for 2 years now. And then at the other safety spot, we've now tried Guss Scott, James Sanders, Arturo Freeman, Randall Gay, and Mike Stone. Maybe when Sanders comes back he'll be back there, maybe it will be Don Davis, who knows. And at corner opposite Samuel, Duane Starks looks terrible, but not sure who to put there either. Maybe we put the rookie Ellis Hobbs at corner and Randall Gay at safety?? I don't know. But for the veterans to be playing this badly as well I have to think some of it must be the departure of Romeo Crennel.

I'm still holding out some little bit of hope that they can figure out what to do with the defensive backs and somehow Wilfork will suddenly start playing like he did last year. But it doesn't seem to likely at this point....

Patriots - Colts Preview

2005-11-05T09:56:00.000-08:00

So here it is. The big Colts Patriots matchup on Monday night. The Patriots have won their last 7 games against the Colts. Including some of the most miraculous and ridiculous games in recent years. In 2003, there was the goal line stop at the end of the game in Indy, where the Patriots stopped the Colts on the 1 yard line for four straight plays to win the game, which eventually meant home field advantage and seeing them at home in the AFC Championship game. The Colts came into that AFC Championship game having not punted in their first two playoff games, and quickly had to punt on their first drive, and the snap went right over the punter's head. Last year in the playoffs, the Colts came in with a dominating offense against our defensive backfield of backups, rookies, linebackers, and wide receivers, and were eliminated 20-3.

This year the Colts come in with a balanced offense and an improved defense. The Patriots are without many key players and both of their coordinators from the Super Bowl years. The Patriots have struggled to run the ball and their top three running backs are injured (it looks like they may have to play two guys they just picked up this week). Their top three strong safeties are injured, and player they picked up four weeks ago who has been starting was just cut. Their top defensive lineman is injured and their top linebacker just came back from a stroke. So needless to say, things don't look good for the Patriots. But the thing is, whenever anyone shows any doubt in the Patriots, says the injuries have caught up with them, says they won't be able to stop the other team's offense (SB XXXVI against the Rams, playoffs last year with the Colts), the Patriots come out and prove them wrong. So its hard to pick against them this year either.

I think the key to these games with the Colts is disguising the defense. One of the main reasons the Colts offense is so dominant is because Peyton Manning calls the play at the line of scrimmage after having already seen what the defense is. Obviously getting to pick the best play for the defense you're facing is much better than just having one for a certain situation or defense you're likely to see. Against the Patriots, these defenses are disguised and Manning loses that advantage. If we're lucky, we trick him into picking a play that we want to see and we gain the advantage. Either way, Manning is not as good without the advantage of having the best possible play picked every time.

One of the more bizarre things this week was the Patriots cutting safety Arturo Freeman to sign Mike Cloud. Obviously the Patriots need a running back with Dillon, Faulk, and Pass all hurt, but Freeman had played most of the last two games at safety with SS Rodney Harrison and Guss Scott both out for the year and James Sanders injured. This leaves the Patriots to either play LB Don Davis at safety or convert a corner to safety. I think this move means the Patriots are planning some special defense for the Colts with either zero or one safeties on the field. Maybe we'll see lots of corners all the time. Who knows. But I imagine they have some agreement to bring Freeman back, I can't imagine they would plan on going the rest of the season with one strong safety.

If the Patriots win this game, it will be up there with their other amazing wins. It will also show that they are still able to compete with the best in the league and a threat to repeat. For them to win, it will require an amazing effort and coaching job. But I wonder if their poor play last week wasn't somewhat because they were already looking ahead to this game. So I'm predicting an incredible win, 28-21.

Computer Predictions for Week 9

2005-11-05T09:55:00.000-08:00

Week 9 Predictions
Colts 27 - Patriots 21
Falcons 24 - Dolphins 21 OT
Chargers 28 - Jets 20
Titans 23 - Browns 21
Bengals 27 - Ravens 20
Jaguars 28 - Texans 10
Chiefs 27 - Raiders 24 OT
Redskins 24 - Eagles 20
Packers 27 - Steelers 24 OT
Lions 24 - Vikings 23
Saints 24 - Bears 21 OT
Buccaneers 20 - Panthers 17
Giants 28 - 49ers 17
Seahawks 24 - Cardinals 17

Last Week:
Picked winning team: 10-4, 0.714
Against the spread: 11-3, 0.786
Picking over/under: 4-10, 0.286

Pats Bills

2005-10-30T22:23:00.000-08:00

Well the Patriots escaped with a win. Somehow their defense came up with big plays when they needed it and they were able to score 14 points in a minute and a half to win the game.

The defense didn't play great, but considering they were on the field for 40 minutes of the game and the Pats offense fumbled the ball twice, only giving up 16 points is pretty good.

We did see some things we hadn't seen the defense do much this year: they created two turnovers (one HUGE one in the 4th quarter by Colvin) and they stopped the other team in the red zone.
However, the Patriots still looked terrible against the rush. Bruschi was inredible in his return though, playing 64 of 77 defensive plays. They moved Mike Vrabel to inside backer and that seemed to help some. The one drive the Beisel went back in the middle for Bruschi you could really notice the difference.

I think the biggest problem with the defense is the defensive line. Wilfork seems to be getting pushed around. They have trouble getting any pressure on the QB and they get pushed aside easily on running plays. Maybe getting Seymour back will be a big help, but I've gotta think letting Keith Traylor go was a bad idea. In Belichick's 3-4 defense, the nose tackle is the KEY to the whole defense. In 2002, they didn't have anyone who could play it, their run defense stunk, and they missed the playoffs. They got Ted Washington in 2003 and went 17-2. In 2004 they had Keith Traylor and Vince Wilfork and went 17-2. This year they just have Vince Wilfork. I don't know if its a sophomore slump, or that he's not getting the rest he got with Keith Traylor here, or that he hasn't had Seymore lined up next to him these last few weeks, but he just isn't doing it. And since I had thought Belichick's personnel philosophy was to bring in as many extra guys as possible and see who makes the cut it seems hard to believe they wouldn't keep Traylor around. Especially with how important the nose tackle is in this defense.

I think on offense, letting Joe Andruzzi go may have had a similar effect, especially with Matt Light out now, you have two rookies on the left side.

So, who looked good tonight:
Bruschi - 11 tackles, impressive comeback performance
Wilson - some good hits, good tackles
Dillon - didn't start because of injury, but ended up playing and making some good plays, he showed some good vision and made some good cutbacks

Random comments:
Arturo Freeman seemed to be slow to read the running plays. All the other defenders would be running up to stop the run and he would still be waiting back in pass coverage, somehow oblivious to the fact that it was a running play.
Andre Davis played a vast majority of plays on offense. Was Tim Dwight hurt or is Andre Davis ahead of him on the depth chart somehow?

Anyway, it was a crazy game, looked like they were going to lose after Buffalo had the long drive from their three followed by the Brady fumble on the next play. But somehow they came back to win, and a defensive turnover (they had as many today as they had the rest of the season) was the key to victory.

Next week they face the 7-0 Colts, and right now I can't imagine how'd they be able to pull that off. But whenever the odds are against them and they're doubted (which is always the case against the Colts), the Patriots have found a way. I would imagine the Colts will be favored by 7 or more, somehow the guys on the WEEI real postgame show were saying it would probably be a pick, at worst 2 points. Can't see how thats possible.

Patriots Bills Preview

2005-10-29T09:36:00.000-07:00

The Bills offensive line is a wreck, their rushing defense is one of the worst in the league, and they're coming to Foxborough after the Patriots bye week and in a game when the Patriots should be amped up with the return of Tedy Bruschi. All signs point to a Patriots victory.
Here are the keys to the game:
1. Offensively, run the ball. Hopefully we'll have Corey Dillon healthy and be able to rush the ball on a team that is statistically one of the worst against the run.
2. Defensively, get some pressure on the QB. The defensive line has played really poorly the last three games and needs to show they are capable of getting pressure on the QB.
3. Stop the run. Hopefully with Bruschi and maybe Vrabel in the middle we'll be able to stop the run better.

Things to look for:
Offensively, the only issues so far have been the running game, and it would be nice to see Dillon get going against this defense.
Defensively, we have problems in every area. The defensive line has played poorly with Seymour injured the last few weeks and Wilfork seemingly getting pushed around. We need to see both of these players play well and get some much-needed pressure on the QB.
The middle linebackers have been very poor making their reads so far, and it should improve this week with Bruschi moving to the middle for Chad Brown, and possibly Vrabel taking over for Beisel. It will be interesting to see how much better they are in the middle with these changes.
In the defensive backfield, there are tons of injuries, lots of backups playing, and no communication. Hopefully with the bye week they've worked on the communication with the players who will be playing, gotten some of the mistakes ironed out, and are ready to play much better. It will be interesting to see who plays at corner opposite Asante Samuel (Duane Starks or Randall Gay) and also who plays in Rodney Harrison's old spot (either rookie James Sanders or recent addition Arturo Freeman). But whoever plays, it would be nice to see better communication and fewer mistakes and solid defensive performance.
One last question is, can the Patriots defense finally create some turnovers?

Bye Week

2005-10-29T09:21:00.000-07:00

So I was hoping that with the bye week the Patriots would get some of their injured players back and work on solidifying the defense. Instead they added Tyrone Poole to the IR. Of the ten defensive backs they started with on the year, they now have 6, three of which are questionable on the injury report. And they've added three more during the season (CB Hank Poteat, S Mike Stone, S Arturo Freeman), so they have 9 total now. They're close to using WR Troy Brown and LB Don Davis as defensive backs again. The Patriots are getting Tedy Bruschi back from stroke, but it remains to be seen if the defense will be much improved tomorrow.

Week 8 Computer Predictions

2005-10-28T07:47:00.000-07:00

Week 8 Predictions
Patriots 23 - Bills 21
Steelers 23 - Ravens 14
Bengals 31 - Packers 21
Raiders 24 - Titans 21 OT
Browns 28 - Texans 20
Broncos 24 - Eagles 17
Chargers 33 - Chiefs 21
Giants 24 - Redskins 21
Cowboys 28 - Cardinals 7
Bears 21 - Lions 20
Saints 23 - Dolphins 21
Panthers 28 - Vikings 21
Jaguars 23 - Rams 21
Buccaneers 23 - 49ers 14

Last Week:
Picked winning team: 9-5, 0.643
Against the spread: 8-6, 0.571
Picking over/under: 6-8, 0.429

Week 7 Computer Predictions

2005-10-28T07:46:00.000-07:00

Week 7 Predictions
Dolphins 28 - Chiefs 21
Browns 24 - Lions 20
Bengals 28 - Steelers 20
Colts 33 - Texans 13
Raiders 24 - Bills 20
Giants 24 - Broncos 21
Chargers 27 - Eagles 24 OT
Redskins 27 - 49ers 14
Bears 21 - Ravens 13
Vikings 27 - Packers 24 OT
Falcons 28 - Jets 17
Saints 30 - Rams 27 OT
Seahawks 24 - Cowboys 21
Cardinals 24 - Titans 21 OT

Last Week:
Picked winning team: 12-2, 0.857
Against the spread: 11-3, 0.786
Picking over/under: 7-7, 0.5

Bruschi

2005-10-16T08:45:00.000-07:00

Tedy Bruschi has no said that he is definitely trying to return this season. Obviously this is no surprise, knowing Tedy Bruschi and hearing all the reports of how hard he's been working out lately. He is eligible to come of the PUP list after week 6 (Tuesday) and then the Patriots have two weeks before their next game at home against Buffalo. He may return to practice as early as next week.
The question is if he will be able to play and if the league will allow him to play. I think with Tedy Bruschi's heart and desire, he will overcome those things.
If Tedy Bruschi does come back, then the Patriots will actually have a chance to go back to the Super Bowl. Somehow they've managed to win at Atlanta and at Pittsburgh without him or Harrison or Light, but that probably wouldn't work in the playoffs. If Tedy came back it would help the Patriots in 4 ways:
1. The Patriots would have the heart and soul of their defense back and would have an experienced play caller back there.
2. Some of the problems in the middle with the middle linebackers missing their assignments would be solved since Tedy would be playing in there.
3. Rodney Harrison's loss would be lessened since the safety would not need to come into the box and almost play like another middle linebacker with Tedy back in there.
4. The Patriots would have one of their big playmakers back out there, a guy who creates turnovers, something the defense has not been able to do this year.

The Patriots defense is built from the inside out, which is why when we lost all those cornerbacks last year (Ty Law, Tyrone Poole, etc) we were ok since our middle linebackers and safeties were still OK. This year we have two new middle linebackers and Rodney Harrison is out for the season. I think the Patriots could overcome one of those things happening, but with both Bruschi and Harrison out it might be too much. If we can get one of them back it will mean a lot to the team.

Patriots Broncos Preview

2005-10-16T08:37:00.000-07:00

The Patriots and Broncos play today at 4PM. Here are the keys to the game:

The Broncos have one of the best rushing defenses in the league, but their pass defense and 3rd down defense are near the bottom. It will be important for the Patriots to get Dillon running and really open up the passing game. On defense, it is important that we stop Tatum Bell and Mike Anderson and prevent any big plays like the deep passes we've been giving up in recent weeks.

Questions we're hoping will be answered by this game:
1. Was the Patriots successful running game last week an anomaly or have they figured out their running attack?
2. Will the Patriots continue to be able to get the ball to Graham and Watson and get some good yards out of their tight ends?
3. How much improved will the Patriots defense be with Poole or Gay at corner instead of Duane Starks?
4. Can the Patriots stop the run if Seymour, McGinest, and/or Beisel are out?

Computer Predictions for Week 6

2005-10-11T20:49:00.000-07:00

Week 6 Predictions
Bills 24 - Jets 16
Jaguars 21 - Steelers 17
Browns 24 - Ravens 21
Bengals 27 - Titans 23
Colts 34 - Rams 13
Chargers 26 - Raiders 23 OT
Broncos 24 - Patriots 20
Redskins 24 - Chiefs 23
Cowboys 28 - Giants 21
Bears 27 - Vikings 17
Panthers 24 - Lions 23
Falcons 23 - Saints 20
Buccaneers 24 - Dolphins 16
Seahawks 34 - Texans 16

The computer currently predicts that the Cowboys will win the Super Bowl in overtime against the Bengals.

Patriots 31 - Falcons 28

2005-10-09T13:59:00.000-07:00

A big win for the Patriots. After their press conferences this week, you knew the Patriots were angry and determined and would come out and play the way they did today. Tom Brady was nearly perfect, with over 350 yards and 3 TDs.

On offense, the Patriots were finally able to run the ball, with Corey Dillon getting over 100 yards. Hopefully this means the Patriots have found a solution to their running problems; it looked like they got it going by having Dillon run behind a fullback, either Pass, Graham, or Watson. It was also good to see both the tight ends get involved with some big plays, with Daniel Graham picking up over 100 receiving. So this game answered some questions about the offense and should give them some confidence going into Denver next week.

On defense, the Patriots did a good job shutting down the run in first and third quarters but had a lot of trouble in the second and fourth quarters. Chad Brown and Monty Beisel still had issues geting into the right spots and I would really like to see them move Vrabel into the middle or play more 4-3. The secondary did give up some big plays, but not as bad as last week. I think the player that hurts us worse than Rodney Harrison being out is that Poole, Gay, and Chad Scott are all out, meaning Duane Starks is the starting CB. He got burned a bunch of times last week and at least once early this week. The defense still failed to get any turnovers, something that has been a huge part of the defense in recent years. It will be nice when Poole and Gay come back, and it was nice to see that James Sanders is healthy again too. So defensively, there are still a lot of questions, hopefully some injured DBs returning will help some, but we'll see.

Patriots – Falcons Preview

2005-10-07T13:33:00.000-07:00

The 2-2 Patriots are coming off a crushing loss to the San Diego Chargers while the 3-1 Atlanta Falcons are coming off a game where they rolled over the Minnesota Vikings early. The Patriots defense has a lot of serious problems, with their top three tacklers from last season all gone and their replacements still not quite grasping the system or filling their gaps. The Patriots defensive veterans need to play better, the defensive line needs to play better, the new middle linebackers and safety need to play better, and coach Belichick needs to come up with some sort of scheme that the defensive players they have can play that will stop the league’s best rushing attack and the league’s best rushing quarterback.

After listening to the comments by Tom Brady, Rosie Colvin and Willie McGinest this week, it sounds like the Patriots are pissed about last week’s loss, pissed that people are saying that this team is done, and they should be fired up to play well on Sunday. The question is, will this be enough to get the job done against the league’s best rushing offense? I believe if the defensive line does come out and dominate like they did in Pittsburgh, that could relieve enough pressure off the middle linebackers and defensive backs to make it work. Also, Tyrone Poole, Randall Gay, and James Sanders have all started practicing again this week, so hopefully that will help the defense as well. If Poole or Gay can start at corner instead of Duane Starks or Chad Scott, that would be a big help, and I think the Patriots like James Sanders better at safety than Guss Scott as well. Either way, I’m depending on a fired up team and a dominant defensive line in this game, leading to a big Patriots win 28-17.

Quarter Season Review

2005-10-07T13:30:00.000-07:00

One fourth of the season has gone by already, and the Patriots are 2-2 after a 41-17 loss to the San Diego Chargers were both the offense and defense fell apart in the second half. The Patriots have lost some key players from last year, both coordinators, and have already had some big injuries this year. All of these are causes for concern for the Patriots. I am going to look at the Patriots problems on each side of the ball and what the possible solutions may be.

Offense

The Patriots offense does not look anywhere near as good as they have in previous seasons. The Patriots have been completely unable to get the running game going, and have been forced to rely on the passing game to compensate, resulting in teams blitzing Tom Brady constantly since they know he will be passing on most plays. Why are the Patriots struggling so much to run the ball? Well there are only two major changes to the offense that could explain this: 1. The Patriots have lost offensive coordinator Charlie Weis (who is doing great at Notre Dame right now). 2. The Patriots have replaced left guard Joe Andruzzi (who is doing great with Cleveland right now) with first round pick Logan Mankins. And now they have been forced to replace left tackle Matt Light with second round pick Nick Kaszur. Joe Andruzzi is a very good offensive lineman, and was one of the most veteran linemen on the team. Still I don’t think that his loss could account for this much loss in the running game, although it is certainly part of the issue. I think the major problem is the play calling without Charlie Weis. It seems like none of the running calls are working very well, the current play calling seems to be much more predictable than it was under Weis. So the losses of Andruzzi and now Light will hopefully ease over time as Mankins and Kazcur learn the offense more each week and play better each week. The play calling I’m not so sure about. Hopefully when the Patriots get to the bye week they’ll have a chance to review their offensive tendencies and see what the situation with offensive play calling and maybe be able to make some adjustment to improve it. Basically, for the offensive problems, I think the best we can hope for is some improvements in play calling during the bye week and some smaller improvements in Mankins and Kazcur, and the worst would be that the offense just won’t be the same without Charlie Weis as offensive coordinator.

Run Defense

The Patriots run defense was horrible last week and has not been very good all season. The Patriots traditionally play a 3-4 defense, and require the middle linebackers to read their keys and fill their gaps pretty quickly to prevent there from being any open running lanes. In the offseason the Patriots lost Ted Johnson to retirement and Tedy Bruschi to stroke, requiring them to bring two new middle linebackers in, Chad Brown and Monty Beisel. Brown and Beisel are struggling so far in the Patriots system, they are not reading the plays well or getting to where they should be on time. The Patriots were able to cover for this in the first few games by bringing Rodney Harrison down into the box to help stop the run, but now he is gone as well so that is no longer an option. I think there are two things that could help solve this problem. First is to play more 4-3 defense, getting Chad Brown off the field and putting Jarvis Green in instead. Hopefully the four man defensive line can dominate more and help keep some pressure off of Monty Beisel. The second thing that has to happen is that Brown and Beisel have to get more comfortable in the defense and start making their reads automatically. However its been four weeks and they still have not seemed to pick up on their spots in the defense. We can also hope that that Tedy Bruschi miraculously returns after bye week. In general, since we can no longer use Rodney Harrison to cover up for the linebacker’s mistakes, we need to play more 4-3 defense and Beisel and Brown have to catch up to speed quick. Maybe we’ll see the Patriots putting Mike Vrabel or another linebacker in the middle soon instead, perhaps that would help as well.

Pass Defense

The Patriots pass defense has struggled because of all of the injuries to the defensive backs. Tyrone Poole and Randall Gay (who were pretty much even in the competition for starting cornerback after Asante Samuel) have been out for a few weeks, and Duane Starks and Chad Scott have been playing but have remained as questionable on the injury list the last few weeks. In addition, Rodney Harrison is out for the year, and his backup James Sanders has also been hurt the last few weeks. So there is a drop in play from Poole and Gay to Starks and Chad Scott and also from Harrison to Guss Scott. Sanders, Poole, and Gay have all started practicing again this week, so hopefully at least a couple of them will be back this week and the rest will be back in a few weeks. Once Poole or Gay come back the Patriots will only have to be playing with one backup (either Guss Scott or James Sanders). I think this is very similar to the situation in the first game against Buffalo in the 2003 season. The Patriots had just cut Lawyer Milloy the week before the season started, and the Patriots were forced to put in a backup and usual special teams player at safety and they got dominated 31-0. Last week the Patriots were forced to put in second year player Guss Scott and were dominated 41-17. But in 2003 they were able to move Eugene Wilson from corner to safety and got things working pretty well. Last year when Wilson was hurt for a few games, the Patriots tried rookie Dexter Reid at safety and then switched linebacker Don Davis to safety and were able to make things work that way. Of course in both these situations, the Patriots had Ted Johnson, Tedy Bruschi, and Rodney Harrison. But I think the Patriots may try Guss Scott at safety for another week, if James Sanders comes back from injury, they put him in there, and if neither of those guys work out and some of the Patriots corners get healthy, you may see another of their corners make the switch back to safety and play there. Either way, I think the Patriots will figure out a way to make their defensive backfield work once some of their injured players come back. But don’t be surprised to see Chad Scott, Randall Gay, James Sanders, or Don Davis back at safety in the next few weeks.

Special Teams

The Patriots special teams the first few weeks of the season were not very good on coverage, allowing other teams to get huge returns. However in recent weeks they have gotten Tully Banta-Cain and Bethel Johnson back and this has helped the coverage teams immensely. On returns, Tim Dwight has been excellent returning punts, and the kick return tandem of Bethel Johnson and Ellis Hobbs has to be one of the better return units in the game. Kicking and punting with Adam Vinatieri and Josh Miller should be ok as well.

So expect to see the Pats pass defense recover as some of their DB’s come back, but don’t be surprised to see someone new back at safety. Expect to see more 4-3 in run situations and hope that Beisel and Brown figure out what they’re doing, if not perhaps we will see someone new at that position as well (Vrabel?). Finally, on offense, I think we just have to hope the play calling gets better, at least the pass game is looking good.

Computer Predictions for Week 5

2005-10-04T18:25:00.000-07:00

Here are my computer Predictions for week 5:

Buccaneers 17 - Jets 16
Bills 24 - Dolphins 21
Browns 23 - Bears 21
Bengals 24 - Jaguars 21
Titans 23 - Texans 21
Broncos 24 - Redskins 13
Chargers 31 - Steelers 17
Eagles 27 - Cowboys 21
Packers 24 - Saints 23
Ravens 21 - Lions 20
Falcons 27 - Patriots 14
Seahawks 31 - Rams 23
Colts 23 - 49ers 17
Cardinals 20 - Panthers 17

Interesting predictions:
Patriots win AFC East at 8-8
Eagles better than Falcons but lose in OT in NFC Championship game in Atlanta.

Link: http://www1.coe.neu.edu/~thester/nfl05/week5.html

Injuries

2005-10-02T17:58:00.000-07:00

The Patriots this year have already gotten a ton of injuries. Rodney Harrison is out for the year, Matt Light and Kevin Faulk are both out for a few weeks. And the defensive backfield is a mess with Ty Poole, Randall Gay, Chad Scott, Duane Starks, and James Sanders all on the injury list each week so far. Last season the Patriots were forced to play an undrafted rookie, a wide receiver and a linebacker in the defensive backfield because of a spate of injuries to the defensive backfield. The Patriots were also forced to play without Richard Seymour in the playoffs and with injuries to the wide receivers during the year. And in 2002, the Patriots had more starters than any other team in the league with injuries to the linebackers, offensive line, and wide receivers.

Even with these injuries, the Patriots were able to go 14-2 and win the Super Bowl both of the last two seasons. I believe the reason the Patriots have had so many injuries is because they play much more physical and intense than the other teams in the league. I think the number of injuries the Patriots have endured show a lot about the way they play. For example, last week when Rodney got hurt, he was running up to the line to stop a running play, and was injured as/after the player was being tackled. Its the effort and intensity these players put in to try to stop the other team no matter what that causes them to have so many injuries. I just hope they are as good at overcoming them this year without having Charlie Weis or Romeo Crennel there to help them.

Chargers 41 - Patriots 17

2005-10-02T17:44:00.000-07:00

The Patriots got destroyed today at home against the Chargers. The first half was OK, the offense looked decent, but the defense couldn't stop the Chargers at all. In the second half it was much worse, the defense was just as bad and the offense couldn't do anything. There time of possession couldn't have been more than 5 minutes and I think they only had one first down. The Patriots defensive line was absolutely TERRIBLE, Drew Brees was not even TOUCHED.

This game definitely had to make you worry about the rest of the season. On offense, the running game still sucked, Corey Dillon rushed 14 times for 63 yards, but 29 of those yards were one play. So for the rest of the runs he ran 13 times for 34 yards, less than 3 yards per carry. I think the major problem on offense may be that they are missing Charlie Weis's play calling. On defense, the defensive line didnt put a hand on Brees the whole day, the linebackers couldn't stop Ladainian Tomlinson at all, and the defensive backs were confused and struggled without Rodney Harrison. The Patriots tried to play a lot more 3-4 today and I think that their defense really struggled because of it, with the team no longer having the linebackers to have the 3-4. Hopefully the Patriots linebackers either catch up to the system fast, Tedy Bruschi comes back, or they start playing a lot more 4-3.

The one good thing to give us some hope, is that looking back to two years ago, the Patriots were 2-2 after a loss to the lowly Redskins, there were a lot of injuries to the linebackers and wide receivers, and yet the Patriots went on to win their next 21 games, including a Super Bowl.

Week 4 Computer Predictions

2005-09-27T17:32:00.000-07:00

Week 4 Computer Predictions

Patriots 27 - Chargers 21
Bengals 31 - Texans 10
Ravens 23 - Jets 20
Colts 23 - Titans 20 OT
Jaguars 27 - Broncos 20
Raiders 23 - Cowboys 21
Eagles 27 - Chiefs 24 OT
Giants 36 - Rams 14
Redskins 23 - Seahawks 20
Saints 21 - Bills 20
Buccaneers 17 - Lions 14
Panthers 28 - Packers 17
Vikings 27 - Falcons 24 OT
Cardinals 24 - 49ers 23

Pats 23 - Steelers 20

2005-09-25T17:54:00.000-07:00

What a game!!! Such a key game for the Patriots and so impressive for a game in week 3. The Patriots drive down the field for the FG with 1:21 left to win the game. I love Brady in the post game conference: "I looked up at the clock and there's a minute twenty-one left, what more could you want?"

For the Patriots to win on the road in Pittsburgh without Rodney Harrison or Matt Light, with three turnovers and ten penatlies, very impressive.
The Patriots offense looked very good, they got some key rushing yards when they needed it and Brady was able to put together a couple of long drives, in addition to going 12 for 12 in the fourth quarter. The only problem was the turnovers in the red zone, without those it could have been a blowout. So the Patriots offense looked much improved over the last two weeks, the special teams coverage was better, and the defense just looked phenomenal. With Harrison out the Patriots really put the pressure on Roethlisburger, made him run and throw the ball away, and it wasn't even blitzing, just the defensive line rushing and getting in his face. Richard Seymore was a MONSTER out there on the field, getting in Big Ben's face.

So very impressive game, much needed to get some confidence for the team and to finally see some semblance of a running game as well as better special teams. It's worrying that Rodney and Matt Light got hurt though, both looked pretty serious.

My player of the game is definitely Richard Seymour, absolutely amazing performance to win this game.

Patriots Steelers Preview

2005-09-24T15:52:00.000-07:00

Here are my comptuers picks for the week:
Panthers 21 - Dolphins 20
Jets 21 - Jaguars 14
Bills 21 - Falcons 17
Steelers 27 - Patriots 21
Colts 24 - Browns 21
Broncos 30 - Chiefs 27 OT
Giants 28 - Chargers 21
Eagles 28 - Raiders 16
Packers 24 - Buccaneers 21 OT
Bengals 27 - Bears 20
Saints 27 - Vikings 23
Titans 27 - Rams 21
Cowboys 27 - 49ers 20
Seahawks 28 - Cardinals 20

The Pats need to win this game, its a huge factor for the playoffs, after this week they could be either a game up on the Steelers (tied records and the tiebreaker) or 3 games down (two more losses than the Steelers plus the tiebreaker). But more importantly this is a huge game to see if the Patriots are going to play the way they did the last two weeks (ugly) or turn it around and become the team that we hope they will be. They don't have to win, they just have to show us that they can stop the run, run the ball, play better special teams, and not commit too many penalties in a noisy opponent's stadium. I think if the Patriots are able to figure out their running game and get Dillon moving along with stopping the Steelers running game and forcing Roethlisburger to throw, they should be able to win the game. Let's hope Brady's aim as well as the special teams are much improved as well. My prediction: Patriots 27 - Steelers 24.

2005 Predictions

2005-09-22T20:01:00.000-07:00

I know it is already week 2, but I figured I would offer up my season predictions anyway. It's a little unfair since we've already seen how good the Bengals, Buccaneers, etc look and how bad the Vikings, Packers, Cardinals, etc look. But here it is:

AFC East:
Patriots 13-3
Jets 9-7
Bills 7-9
Dolphins 5-11

AFC North:
Bengals 12-4
Steelers 12-4
Browns 7-9
Ravens 4-12

AFC South:
Jaguars 13-3
Colts 12-4
Titans 8-8
Texans 3-13

AFC West:
Chiefs 13-3
Chargers 10-6
Broncos 7-9
Raiders 6-10

NFC East:
Eagles 13-3
Giants 12-4
Cowboys 10-6
Redskins 7-9

NFC North:
Bears 8-8
Lions 5-11
Vikings 4-12
Packers 3-13 (predicting a 3 game win streak in December)

NFC South:
Panthers 13-3
Buccaneers 11-5
Falcons 11-5
Saints 8-8

NFC West:
Seahawks 11-5
49ers 7-9
Rams 6-10
Cardinals 6-10

With the NFC South playing the NFC North there are going to be some bad final records for the NFC North teams.

So we have our AFC Playoff teams:
Division Winners: Patriots, Chiefs, Jaguars, Bengals
Wildcards: Steelers, Colts

Bengals defeat the Steelers, Jaguars over the Colts, then Pats over Bengals in a close one, Jaguars beat Chiefs and the Patriots defeat the Jaguars to head to Super Bowl XL.

In the NFC:
Division Winners: Panthers, Eagles, Seahawks, Bears
Wildcards: Giants, Buccaneers

Buccs upset the Seahawks, Bears upset (kind of) the Giants. Panthers and Eagles win the next round and the Panthers win the game to make Super Bowl XL Patriots v. Panthers.
Patriots win Super Bowl XL 28-17 in their first Super Bowl victory of more than 3 points!

Panthers 27 - Patriots 17

2005-09-18T13:23:00.000-07:00

This was an ugly game for the Patriots. There were mistakes all around. Two of the biggest things that hurt them were the penalties and the mis-throws by Tom Brady. The Patriots committed a few defensive penalties to continue the Panther's drives and really hurt them. The Pats offensive lines committed a TON of false start penalties, killing the drives before they got started. Tom Brady looked off the entire day, he was overthrowing people and missed a wide open throw to Ben Watson in the first half. These missed passes looked like the key to the game to me, these were missed passes that ended drives that should have been continued. I think if Brady had been more accurate and was able to hit his targets then a lot of those drives would have gone on longer. The Patriots special teams looked terrible as well, giving up a huge punt return (great rundown and tackle by Ben Watson though) that setup a Panther's field goal in the second half. The Patriots gave up another huge punt return in the second half, where it looked like they had it covered and then Steve Smith blew by the guys, but thankfully it was called back by a penalty.

The turning point in the game I think was the Tom Brady fumble in the third quarter. The Panthers had been up 20-7 and the Patriots drove down the field for a field goal and then Vrabel got an interception for a touchdown on the Panther's first play. The Patriots had scored ten points in thirty seconds, they were only down by three, they had the momentum and had a chance to come back and then Mike Rucker beat Matt Light and Logan Mankins and stripped the ball from Brady, soon followed by another Stephen Davis touchdown.

The Patriots defense looked decent today, but they had a couple of penalties (Harrison personal foul, Eugene Wilson pass interference, etc) that really killed them continuing drives on third down that shoud have been stopped. The running game still looked enemic at best and needs some help going into Pittsburgh next week, certainly all the false starts don't help.

The Panthers played really well and the Patriots played really poorly. The special teams needs a lot of work, the penalties on offense were terrible and on defense were killers. But most importantly, Brady needs to play a lot better, even with the other mistakes, I think if Brady played like we've seen in previous seasons, then the Patriots would have won this game.

Patriots - Panthers Preview

2005-09-18T09:10:00.000-07:00

Here are my thoughts about today's Patriots Panthers game. I think after the Patriots ran so poorly against Oakland, they will have worked hard on that this week with the extra days they had and it will be a point of emphasis in today's game. I think you'll also see a lot of 4-3 on defense from the Patriots. I think after the Panthers' performance last week you'll see them play a lot better this week and it should be a close game coming down to the end. I'm predicting the Patriots to win 24-17.

Here are my computer's predictions for the week:
Dolphins 24 - Jets 17
Bengals 35 - Vikings 14
Ravens 27 - Titans 24 OT
Colts 20 - Jaguars 13
Steelers 24 - Texans 21 OT
Chiefs 31 - Raiders 20
Broncos 31 - Chargers 27
Eagles 28 - 49ers 17
Cowboys 20 - Redskins 16
Packers 24 - Browns 23
Lions 20 - Bears 16
Saints 24 - Giants 21
Bills 24 - Buccaneers 14
Patriots 28 - Panthers 23
Seahawks 24 - Falcons 21
Cardinals 28 - Rams 14

2005 NFL Season Opener - Raiders @ Patriots

2005-09-09T16:35:00.000-07:00

2005 NFL Season Opener - Raiders @ Patriots
Patriots 30 - Raiders 20
Patriots: 1-0

Last night was the first game of the NFL season. There was lots of crazy opening ceremony stuff, including a surprise concert by Ozzy Ozzborne while Bob Kraft was talking in between. And of course the unveiling of the 3rd Super Bowl banner. Absolutely incredible! They showed a video of highlights of the Patriots Super Bowls and its so insane to think that four years ago Brady was a 2nd year backup QB to Bledsoe, and suddenly Bledsoe got hurt and bam, 3 Super Bowls in 4 years. It's unbelievable. Considering how bad the Pats were, and now they're the team that every team tries to copy. I just can't explain how unbelievable this still is to me.
The third Super Bowl banner is nice though!!!

The Patriots had a lot of changes from last year that were cause for concern going into this game. Of course no team is better at dealing with changes than the Pats since they've dealt with outrageous numbers of injuries the last few years. First, both Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel were gone. Second we lose Bruschi, Ted Johnson, and Ty Law. And the loss of Joe Andruzzi. Eric Mangini was promoted to be defensive coordinator with Romeo gone and this doesn't worry me much since Mangini has done an amazing job the last few years with our secondary (like starting linebackers and undrafted rookies in the defensive backfield in the playoffs and holding the record breaking Colts to 3 points!). Andruzzi's replacement of Logan Mankins may end up being better than he was, and certainly he's younger. I don't think we should be too worried about Ty Law's absence since the Pat's did fine with him, Poole, and Samuel all hurt. So that leaves the main worries, trying to replace Bruschi and Johnson and Weis's play calling. This game was supposed to provide some clue as to how those things were going.

Here is my view of the game: the offense played very well in the pass game, getting their receivers open a lot and hitting all different guys. Ben Watson looked awesome (glad I drafted him in every fantasy league this year). The problem with the offense was the running game, in the first half Corey Dillon just couldn't get anything. I'm not sure if it was Dillon, the offensive line, or the play calling. It looked like rookie Nick Kaszur and Matt Light were switching off every other drive which seemed strange since Matt Light is one of the best in the league and is protected Brady's blindside. Maybe they were concerned with Light's play or something. In the second half the Pats ran a little better but still needs a LOT of work.

On defense, the Patriots looked terrible against the run in the 3-4 with Chad Brown and Monty Beisel in the middle. Eventually they switched to a 4-3, taking Brown out and putting Jarvis Green in and they played much better. I think Brown just hasn't figured out the defense yet, and we'll probably be seeing a lot of 4-3 until he does (if he does). But Jarvis Green is a great player and really shouldn't be sitting on the bench in favor of Chad Brown anyway. So they may be better off with the 4-3 and Green in there, we'll see how it goes. Bill Belichick will always try to go with whatever scheme is best for the team, so I'm sure we'll see him trying both all year. The pass defense was pretty good considering who they were facing, other than the one Tyrone Poole play against Moss they were excellent.

So I think the defensive play calling was fine and pass game looked great. But you have to be concerned about the running game and the offensive play calling as well as how playing more 4-3 will affect the Pats. Playing in Carolina next week and in Pittsburgh the next will be a very tough test and the Patriots will have to play MUCH better than they did this week to win the next two.

What looked good about the game? Ben Watson looked great and will be exciting to watch. The Patriots defensive line was very impressive once they went to the 4-3. And punter Josh Miller looked great, pinning the Raiders on their 4 yard line twice and inside their 20 a couple more times. Deion Branch, Troy Brown, and Tim Dwight all looked very good. Dwight looked great on his punt returns and he will be very exciting to watch.

I would imagine the Patriot's will work a lot this week on the running game and the offensive play calling and you'll see them run a lot better next week in Carolina. I also think you'll see the Patiots try the 3-4 with Chad Brown again and most likely end up using a lot of 4-3 with Jarvis Green instead.

The Beginning

2005-09-09T16:29:00.000-07:00

I've decided to start a Patriots blog, since its easier than doing it myself on my website like I would do anyway. If you want to look at any of my rants there from the last two seasons, the link is:
2004: http://www1.coe.neu.edu/~thester/patriots/season04.html
2003: http://www1.coe.neu.edu/~thester/patriots/season03.html

Other random Pats rantings, pics from Super Bowl XXXVI and predictions from my NFL Predictor program are all at:
http://www1.coe.neu.edu/~thester/patriots/index.html